إنترا-كولوني، انتشار، بسبب، أمريكي، فولبرود، إلى داخل، أوروبى، نونيبيس، (أبيس، مليفيرا، L A Mathematical Model of Intra-Colony Spread of American Foulbrood in European Honeybees (Apis mellifera L.)

إنترا-كولوني، انتشار، بسبب، أمريكي، فولبرود، إلى داخل، أوروبى، نونيبيس، (أبيس، مليفيرا، L

A Mathematical Model of Intra-Colony
Spread of American Foulbrood in European
Honeybees (Apis mellifera L.)
Eduardo O. Jatulan, Jomar F. Rabajante, Charina Gracia B. Banaay, Alejandro
C. Fajardo Jr., Editha C. Jose

Abstract
American foulbrood (AFB) is one of the severe infectious diseases of European honeybees
(Apis mellifera L.) and other Apis species. This disease is caused by a gram-positive,
spore-forming bacterium Paenibacillus larvae. In this paper, a compartmental (SI framework)
model is constructed to represent the spread of AFB within a colony. The model is
analyzed to determine the long-term fate of the colony once exposed to AFB spores. It was
found out that without effective and efficient treatment, AFB infection eventually leads to colony
collapse. Furthermore, infection thresholds were predicted based on the stability of the
equilibrium states. The number of infected cell combs is one of the factors that drive disease
spread. Our results can be used to forecast the transmission timeline of AFB infection and
to evaluate the control strategies for minimizing a possible epidemic.